Verified Critical Step Optimization for LLM Agents

As large language model agents tackle increasingly complex long-horizon tasks, effective post-training becomes critical. Prior work faces fundamental challenges: outcome-only rewards fail to precisely attribute credit to intermediate steps, estimated step-level rewards introduce systematic noise, and Monte Carlo sampling approaches for step reward estimation incur prohibitive computational cost. Inspired by findings that only a small fraction of high-entropy tokens drive effective RL for reasoning, we propose Critical Step Optimization (CSO), which focuses preference learning on verified critical steps, decision points where alternate actions demonstrably flip task outcomes from failure to success. Crucially, our method starts from failed policy trajectories rather than expert demonstrations, directly targeting the policy model's weaknesses. We use a process reward model (PRM) to identify candidate critical steps, leverage expert models to propose high-quality alternatives, then continue execution from these alternatives using the policy model itself until task completion. Only alternatives that the policy successfully executes to correct outcomes are verified and used as DPO training data, ensuring both quality and policy reachability. This yields fine-grained, verifiable supervision at critical decisions while avoiding trajectory-level coarseness and step-level noise. Experiments on GAIA-Text-103 and XBench-DeepSearch show that CSO achieves 37% and 26% relative improvement over the SFT baseline and substantially outperforms other post-training methods, while requiring supervision at only 16% of trajectory steps. This demonstrates the effectiveness of selective verification-based learning for agent post-training.

MemCast: Memory-Driven Time Series Forecasting with Experience-Conditioned Reasoning

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a critical role in decision-making for many real-world applications. Recently, LLM-based forecasters have made promising advancements. Despite their effectiveness, existing methods often lack explicit experience accumulation and continual evolution. In this work, we propose MemCast, a learning-to-memory framework that reformulates TSF as an experience-conditioned reasoning task. Specifically, we learn experience from the training set and organize it into a hierarchical memory. This is achieved by summarizing prediction results into historical patterns, distilling inference trajectories into reasoning wisdom, and inducing extracted temporal features into general laws. Furthermore, during inference, we leverage historical patterns to guide the reasoning process and utilize reasoning wisdom to select better trajectories, while general laws serve as criteria for reflective iteration. Additionally, to enable continual evolution, we design a dynamic confidence adaptation strategy that updates the confidence of individual entries without leaking the test set distribution. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that MemCast consistently outperforms previous methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xiaoyu-Tao/MemCast-TS.

CoGenCast: A Coupled Autoregressive-Flow Generative Framework for Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting can be viewed as a generative problem that requires both semantic understanding over contextual conditions and stochastic modeling of continuous temporal dynamics. Existing approaches typically rely on either autoregressive large language models (LLMs) for semantic context modeling or diffusion-like models for continuous probabilistic generation. However, neither method alone can adequately model both aspects simultaneously. In this work, we propose CoGenCast, a hybrid generative framework that couples pre-trained LLMs with flow-matching mechanism for effective time series forecasting. Specifically, we reconfigure pre-trained decoder-only LLMs into a native forecasting encoder-decoder backbone by modifying only the attention topology, enabling bidirectional context encoding and causal representation generation. Building on this, a flow-matching mechanism is further integrated to model temporal evolution, capturing continuous stochastic dynamics conditioned on the autoregressively generated representation. Notably, CoGenCast naturally supports multimodal forecasting and cross-domain unified training. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks show that CoGenCast consistently outperforms previous compared baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/liuyaguo/_CoGenCast.

Position: Beyond Model-Centric Prediction -- Agentic Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting has traditionally been formulated as a model-centric, static, and single-pass prediction problem that maps historical observations to future values. While this paradigm has driven substantial progress, it proves insufficient in adaptive and multi-turn settings where forecasting requires informative feature extraction, reasoning-driven inference, iterative refinement, and continual adaptation over time. In this paper, we argue for agentic time series forecasting (ATSF), which reframes forecasting as an agentic process composed of perception, planning, action, reflection, and memory. Rather than focusing solely on predictive models, ATSF emphasizes organizing forecasting as an agentic workflow that can interact with tools, incorporate feedback from outcomes, and evolve through experience accumulation. We outline three representative implementation paradigms -- workflow-based design, agentic reinforcement learning, and a hybrid agentic workflow paradigm -- and discuss the opportunities and challenges that arise when shifting from model-centric prediction to agentic forecasting. Together, this position aims to establish agentic forecasting as a foundation for future research at the intersection of time series forecasting.

Towards Interpretable Hallucination Analysis and Mitigation in LVLMs via Contrastive Neuron Steering

LVLMs achieve remarkable multimodal understanding and generation but remain susceptible to hallucinations. Existing mitigation methods predominantly focus on output-level adjustments, leaving the internal mechanisms that give rise to these hallucinations largely unexplored. To gain a deeper understanding, we adopt a representation-level perspective by introducing sparse autoencoders (SAEs) to decompose dense visual embeddings into sparse, interpretable neurons. Through neuron-level analysis, we identify distinct neuron types, including always-on neurons and image-specific neurons. Our findings reveal that hallucinations often result from disruptions or spurious activations of image-specific neurons, while always-on neurons remain largely stable. Moreover, selectively enhancing or suppressing image-specific neurons enables controllable intervention in LVLM outputs, improving visual grounding and reducing hallucinations. Building on these insights, we propose Contrastive Neuron Steering (CNS), which identifies image-specific neurons via contrastive analysis between clean and noisy inputs. CNS selectively amplifies informative neurons while suppressing perturbation-induced activations, producing more robust and semantically grounded visual representations. This not only enhances visual understanding but also effectively mitigates hallucinations. By operating at the prefilling stage, CNS is fully compatible with existing decoding-stage methods. Extensive experiments on both hallucination-focused and general multimodal benchmarks demonstrate that CNS consistently reduces hallucinations while preserving overall multimodal understanding.

DSCD-Nav: Dual-Stance Cooperative Debate for Object Navigation

Adaptive navigation in unfamiliar indoor environments is crucial for household service robots. Despite advances in zero-shot perception and reasoning from vision-language models, existing navigation systems still rely on single-pass scoring at the decision layer, leading to overconfident long-horizon errors and redundant exploration. To tackle these problems, we propose Dual-Stance Cooperative Debate Navigation (DSCD-Nav), a decision mechanism that replaces one-shot scoring with stance-based cross-checking and evidence-aware arbitration to improve action reliability under partial observability. Specifically, given the same observation and candidate action set, we explicitly construct two stances by conditioning the evaluation on diverse and complementary objectives: a Task-Scene Understanding (TSU) stance that prioritizes goal progress from scene-layout cues, and a Safety-Information Balancing (SIB) stance that emphasizes risk and information value. The stances conduct a cooperative debate and make policy by cross-checking their top candidates with cue-grounded arguments. Then, a Navigation Consensus Arbitration (NCA) agent is employed to consolidate both sides' reasons and evidence, optionally triggering lightweight micro-probing to verify uncertain choices, preserving NCA's primary intent while disambiguating. Experiments on HM3Dv1, HM3Dv2, and MP3D demonstrate consistent improvements in success and path efficiency while reducing exploration redundancy.

ShopSimulator: Evaluating and Exploring RL-Driven LLM Agent for Shopping Assistants

Large language model (LLM)-based agents are increasingly deployed in e-commerce shopping. To perform thorough, user-tailored product searches, agents should interpret personal preferences, engage in multi-turn dialogues, and ultimately retrieve and discriminate among highly similar products. However, existing research has yet to provide a unified simulation environment that consistently captures all of these aspects, and always focuses solely on evaluation benchmarks without training support. In this paper, we introduce ShopSimulator, a large-scale and challenging Chinese shopping environment. Leveraging ShopSimulator, we evaluate LLMs across diverse scenarios, finding that even the best-performing models achieve less than 40% full-success rate. Error analysis reveals that agents struggle with deep search and product selection in long trajectories, fail to balance the use of personalization cues, and to effectively engage with users. Further training exploration provides practical guidance for overcoming these weaknesses, with the combination of supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning (RL) yielding significant performance improvements. Code and data will be released at https://github.com/ShopAgent-Team/ShopSimulator.

Explaining Synergistic Effects in Social Recommendations

In social recommenders, the inherent nonlinearity and opacity of synergistic effects across multiple social networks hinders users from understanding how diverse information is leveraged for recommendations, consequently diminishing explainability. However, existing explainers can only identify the topological information in social networks that significantly influences recommendations, failing to further explain the synergistic effects among this information. Inspired by existing findings that synergistic effects enhance mutual information between inputs and predictions to generate information gain, we extend this discovery to graph data. We quantify graph information gain to identify subgraphs embodying synergistic effects. Based on the theoretical insights, we propose SemExplainer, which explains synergistic effects by identifying subgraphs that embody them. SemExplainer first extracts explanatory subgraphs from multi-view social networks to generate preliminary importance explanations for recommendations. A conditional entropy optimization strategy to maximize information gain is developed, thereby further identifying subgraphs that embody synergistic effects from explanatory subgraphs. Finally, SemExplainer searches for paths from users to recommended items within the synergistic subgraphs to generate explanations for the recommendations. Extensive experiments on three datasets demonstrate the superiority of SemExplainer over baseline methods, providing superior explanations of synergistic effects.

Pianoroll-Event: A Novel Score Representation for Symbolic Music

Symbolic music representation is a fundamental challenge in computational musicology. While grid-based representations effectively preserve pitch-time spatial correspondence, their inherent data sparsity leads to low encoding efficiency. Discrete-event representations achieve compact encoding but fail to adequately capture structural invariance and spatial locality. To address these complementary limitations, we propose Pianoroll-Event, a novel encoding scheme that describes pianoroll representations through events, combining structural properties with encoding efficiency while maintaining temporal dependencies and local spatial patterns. Specifically, we design four complementary event types: Frame Events for temporal boundaries, Gap Events for sparse regions, Pattern Events for note patterns, and Musical Structure Events for musical metadata. Pianoroll-Event strikes an effective balance between sequence length and vocabulary size, improving encoding efficiency by 1.36\times to 7.16\times over representative discrete sequence methods. Experiments across multiple autoregressive architectures show models using our representation consistently outperform baselines in both quantitative and human evaluations.

InstructTime++: Time Series Classification with Multimodal Language Modeling via Implicit Feature Enhancement

Most existing time series classification methods adopt a discriminative paradigm that maps input sequences directly to one-hot encoded class labels. While effective, this paradigm struggles to incorporate contextual features and fails to capture semantic relationships among classes. To address these limitations, we propose InstructTime, a novel framework that reformulates time series classification as a multimodal generative task. Specifically, continuous numerical sequences, contextual textual features, and task instructions are treated as multimodal inputs, while class labels are generated as textual outputs by tuned language models. To bridge the modality gap, InstructTime introduces a time series discretization module that converts continuous sequences into discrete temporal tokens, together with an alignment projection layer and a generative self-supervised pre-training strategy to enhance cross-modal representation alignment. Building upon this framework, we further propose InstructTime++, which extends InstructTime by incorporating implicit feature modeling to compensate for the limited inductive bias of language models. InstructTime++ leverages specialized toolkits to mine informative implicit patterns from raw time series and contextual inputs, including statistical feature extraction and vision-language-based image captioning, and translates them into textual descriptions for seamless integration. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate the superior performance of InstructTime++.